Washblog

Elway: I-933 Significantly Losing Ground

[Author's Note, 11/05: Newest University of Washington poll shows NO ON I-933 is even better off.]
[Author's note 11/02: New SURVEY USA poll shows NO ON I-933 now in the lead.]

An Elway poll just released today ( Property-rights initiative still popular, but losing ground), shows that I-933 has lost 16 points since late July. The previous Elway poll, in late July, showed that 32% more people supported I-933 than opposed it. Now that gap is just 16%.  Here, for your scanning pleasure, the numbers of the 2 polls compared:

 July 06Sept. 06
Def. Yes30%26%
Prob. Yes25% 21%
Undec.    22%22%
Prob. No13%17%
Def.  No10%14%

 

This is a remarkable turnaround.  Consider that the poll was conducted between September 21 and September 24 - only three days after the September 18th launch of the NO ON I-933 TV ads.  Any initiative campaign that has lower than a 50% level of support at any point -- especially only a month before the election, is in trouble.  And to see such a dramatic rise in public awareness in the month of August, when people are on vacation, soaking up summer sun,  generally just not paying electoral attention, is quite heartening.  As the NO ON I-933 campaign heats up, newspapers continue to alert their readership to the dangers of I-933,  business, civic, and environmental organizations continue to get the word out to their memberships, and attention turns to the real stakes we're facing here, these numbers will continue to move.  But will they move in time?

There's still much work to do to reach people. People will vote against this measure when they know that it will harm personal property as much as it enriches individual developers and that it will cost them dearly in taxes. Very few people -- except for those with very low moral standards who stood to make significant personal profit -- would vote for a measure that they understood would do the following:
  • Cost taxpayers billions:
    • $8 billion according to a recent study from the University of Washington College of Architecture and Urban Planning's Northwest Center for Livable Communities.  (This study also finds that I-933 will have the unintended consequence of  expanding bureaucracy and increasing costs and delays for many developers.  (Maybe that's why no large donations for I-933 have come from home builders, realtors or real estate agencies.)
    • $2 billion to $2.18 billion to the state, $3.8 billion to $5.3 billion to cities, and $1.49 billion to $1.51 billion to counties, according to the  Washington State Office of Financial Management: Potential Financial Impacts of I-933: Concerning Government Regulation of Private Property.
  • Make fires more difficult to fight and put firefighters in greater physical danger. The Washington State Council of Firefighters has endorsed the NO ON I-933 campaign. I heard a representative of that organization speak at the Covington City Council meeting in September, where I was also testifying against I-933. The WSFA representative detailed how I-933 is expected to make streets less accessible for firetrucks, impact building codes to make buildings less safe, and lead to an increase of fire hazards, including the presence of flammable and explosive materials in areas that firefighters will need to enter.
  • Wildly jam up our court system with litigation, as it takes enforcement over land use away from the normal regulatory avenues and puts it into court system.
  • Significantly reduce state sovereignty over our own affairs and expose us to the whims of local developers and the financial sanctions and interference of the federal government.  (A Washington State Department of Ecology report concludes that I-933 will likely result in the  loss of Washington State's ability to regulate the discharge of toxics into our own air and water, put regulation of Washington's federal waterways under federal control, leave state waterways unprotected, and expose Washington State to large financial sanctions from the federal government.)
  • Enrich developers and out-of-state interests, largely libertarians, who have an ulterior motive to shrink government and open up land to development for their profit
  • Result in the loss of farmland.   From the May, 2006 Washington State Grange News: "In an in-depth analysis of this language, the Grange found cause for concern to agricultural lands and some property owners." The Grange, by the way, is Washington's oldest farm association with a larger farmer membership than any other state organization, including the Washington State Farm Bureau.  The Grange is a genuine advocate for farmers.  See the image from American Farmland Trust at the bottom of this post for a visual representation of how sprawl threatens our farmland in Washington.
  • Do nothing to protect people from eminent domain, as its proponents claim.   Proponents used this claim heavily to get signatures on its petition.
  • Damage the value and use of private property by allowing unrestrained development in suburban and rural areas

It is amazing to me that this initiative has any organizational supporters at all.  As Jim Hightower said at a recent gathering: "I-933 is a Kick-Me sign on Washington State."  As the public comes to understand the truth of this statement -- how much of a disaster this initiative is, how much of a betrayal of the public trust its backers are engaging in...  those individuals and organizations that have backed it will lose power. I hope that I-933 is unmasked for the debacle it is because people have had the opportunity to look at the facts before voting -- rather than suffering from its painful impacts after it has been enacted. Please volunteer for -- and donate to NO ON I-933.


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there is an ad running morning noon and night that* ...

that kicks ass.

It reminds me of the effective ads the thugs do

It uses some variant of "farm" "farmer" six or more times,

ALL the statements are short,

They all fit together well,

They are like set up jabs before

Wham!

"Ask me, I am a farmer, and I am against..."

add a nice effective hard hitting ad to all the horrible truth, AND

badda bing.

rmm.

(* I wish cantwell and burner's ads were this good.)

http://www.liemail.com/BambooGrassroots.html

by rmdSeaBos on Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 04:22:39 PM PST

* 1 4.75 4 *


In a piece on the latest Survey USA poll, there's an update to this.

I-933 is now failing by 4 points, under the least favorable scenario -- and failing by much more under the most favorable.

As Lefty Mama points out in a comment on that post, surveyors asked about I-933 in two ways: in
Version 1, just refering to the initiative by number (I-933) and in version 2, giving a brief explanation of the initative (I-933 would require compensation when government regulations damages the use or value of private property)

The "Version 2" questions had a lot less uncertainty.

version 1 -
i-920: yes-23% no-40% undecided-37%
i-933: yes-22% no-46% undecided-33%

version 2 -
i-920: yes-40% no-51% undecided-9%
i-933: yes-41% no-45% undecided-13%

by noemie maxwell on Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 10:50:49 AM PST

* 9 none 0 *