Washblog

New Survey USA Poll: It's Lookin' Good for Washington

[Note, 11/05: Newest University of Washington poll shows a better lead for NO ON I-933.]

There's a new Survey USA poll out and it's looking good for Cantwell, Owens, NO on I-920, and NO on I-933.  Survey USA interviewed 403 likely voters in Washington.  

54% Cantwell and 41% McGavick.  I dunno, but one week out from the election, it looks pretty good for Cantwell with numbers like that -- unless the McGavick crew or Bush administration pulls some major skullduggery.  Justice I-don't-answer-questions-from-bloggers Owens, defending her seat against Stephen Johnson, my ultra-conservative, Religious-Right state Senator, is a bit less comfortable, with only a 5% margin.    I-920 has a similar large margin: 51% NO and 40% yes.  I-933 is looking great, with only 22% certain they'll vote yes and 46% certain they'll vote NO.  (Here's something that puzzles me about this poll.  Shouldn't the number of people who are leaning NO on I-933 be larger than the number of people who are certain they'll vote NO?  This poll shows 45% of likely voters interviewed are leaning no and 46% certain they'll vote no.  Hmmm.)

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Jebuz Noemie, please join me willingly in welcoming a flogging by Owens if it helps her deflect the consequences of an evil trap set for we by Stefon and the downtown young men's republican club.  

by Particle Man on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 05:45:09 PM PST

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In the link, they ask the question about the initiaives in two ways:
Version 1) just refering to the initiative by number (i-920, i-933)
Version 2) giving a brief explanation of the initative (i-920 would repeal estate taxes, i-933 would require compensation when government regulations damages the use or value of private property)

You can see the question's wording by hovering over the hypertext link in your browser, and reading the popup text.

The "Version 2" questions had a lot less uncertainty.
version 1 -
i-920: yes-23% no-40% undecided-37%
i-933: yes-22% no-46% undecided-33%

version 2 -
i-920: yes-40% no-51% undecided-9%
i-933: yes-41% no-45% undecided-13%

I-933 is within the margin of error - and it is truly terrible legislation. I saw a lot of misleading signs up in Skagit County: "Yes-I933-save local farms" when I think it would more likely kill local farms instead.

by Lefty Mama on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 12:55:35 AM PST

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