Washblog

What Democrats can do about Iraq: If King Abdullah lets us....


"This Congress cannot escape history or its own duty"
-- Senator Kennedy's Remarks, Escalation is not the Answer, January 7,2007
"Mideast allies near a state of panic: U.S. leaders' visits to the region reap only warnings and worry"
-- LA Times, Dec 3, 2006
Find WA locations of Demonstrations for this Thursday
-- True Majority

I'm thinking about two exchanges I've taken part in recently, the Washblog conversation on Particle Man's post: Can the Democrats in DC End the War? and a phone conversation I had last night with a friend who believes that if we withdraw from Iraq, WWIII is likely to start sooner rather than later -- but that we must withdraw immediately, nevertheless

My friend pointed me to news reports on the "summoning" of Dick Cheney to Saudi Arabia for a two-hour visit late in November by King Abdullah.  Saudi Arabia, a predominantly Sunni nation, shares a 500-mile border with predominantly Shi'ite Iraq.  King Abdullah was thought to be warning Cheney that if the US leaves Iraq, Saudia Arabia will invade.  That theory is borne out by a recent piece in the Washington Post by Nawaf Obaid, an adviser to the Saudi government, entitled Stepping Into Iraq: Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves, and warning of "massive intervention" in Iraq by Saudi Arabia if the US leaves. Given recent opinions of all top US military leaders responsible for Iraq that more troops is not the answer (these leaders are being purged now), it's interesting to consider whether this Saudi advice may play a large part in this administration's fixation on escalation.

Today, Senator Kennedy summarizes the most recent US military assessment of Bush's call for more troops in an announcement on his new proposed legislation that would require Congressional approval and funding for any escalation. Kennedy points out that General Abizaid, Commander of the United States Central Command over the region that includes Iraq, testified before Congress in November that he and General Casey, Commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq; Lieutenant General DempseyCommander of the Multinational Security Transition Command in Iraq, and every divisional commander had talked together and agreed that more troops in Iraq would make the situation worse. Two questions one might ask. First, is Bush heeding the dictates of "foreign potentates" over the sage advice of his own military? Given Bush's announcement on Friday that he's replacing the top two commanders, Abizaid and Casey, it seems so far that he's determined to ignore the advice of our top military experts and commanders.* Second, is this a big piece of the answer to Particle Man's question -- how the Democrats might end the war?

*I hadn't caught the news on the military purge. Thanks to Citizen Steve for that.

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warning of "massive intervention" in Iraq by Saudi Arabia if the US leaves
said "massive intervention" to be carried out, doubtless, by that same Saudi army that was deemed to be a "speed bump" back in 1991, when people were still worried about Saddam Hussein's army.  I'm sure the Iraqis are quaking in their boots.

The real problem, I suspect, probably has more to do with the Saudi monarchy being toast the moment they send the Saudi army away to do any actual fighting anywhere -- not entirely dissimilar to the situation the Russian monarchy faced when WWI came up --- and thus they'll be between a rock and a hard place if the Sunnis of Iraq should start getting massacred.

Not that it's likely to be Rwanda all over again, seeing as I imagine the Sunnis already have their own (massive) supplies of guns, and al-Sadr, if he has any sense, ought to be able to see that this sort ethnic cleansing is going to cost massively and be very unlikely to work.  Granted that assumes he's able to keep control of the situation, which is no sure thing.

All of which underscores that our choices in Iraq are all between bad and worse -- something that badly needs to be a talking point.

by wrog on Tue Jan 09, 2007 at 06:39:11 PM PST

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