On Closing The Deal, Or, Referendum 71 Polling Analyzed
It is now Election Day around the US, and one ballot question that is attracting national attention is Washington State’s Referendum 71.
Voting “yes” on the Referendum would codify in law various protections for same-sex domestic partners, and it is similar to a measure that the citizens of Maine are also voting on today.
We have polling data that is fairly fresh, so let’s take this last chance to look at where we might be, and what you should be looking for over the next few days as you attempt to judge how this one is going.
As always, a few words of setup are in order.
Washington State is one of two vote-by-mail states (Oregon is the other). Ballots went out to voters 20 days before Election Day, and any ballot postmarked before midnight, November 3rd will be counted. (In the November 2008 election, 50% of ballots were still in the mail at the close of business on Election Day) As a result, there will not be a “final” count tonight…and if the race is exceptionally close, it could be weeks before the recount process is complete. You should also be aware that the lead can change after Election Day, based on how many votes are coming in, and where they’re coming from. You can track the statewide results at the Washington Secretary of State’s website. (And if you want to learn more about Washington’s unusual ballot system, visit your local library…or my last story.) This vote is on a Referendum. What that means is that the Legislature initially passed the bill we are considering today, and now a group of citizens, who didn’t like what the Legislature did, have gathered sufficient signatures to force a final vote by the People before the bill can become law. Voting “yes” means the bill granting additional rights to “committed couples” will become law (the law would apply to same-sex couples of any age, or male-female couples if one partner is over the age of 62); voting “no” will prevent the bill from taking effect. If you support the Legislature’s actions, you would have opposed the proponents of the Referendum while they were gathering signatures—but now you would be voting “yes” on Referendum 71. This is more than a bit confusing, and a poll conducted this summer suggested as many as 10% of voters shared that confusion. (Since then, of course, people have been running ads.) Now, a few words about the poll we’ll be discussing. There is no daily tracking poll for us to work with, which means we won’t be able to analyze trends over time. Instead, we have a “snapshot in time” with which to work. This study (“The Washington Poll”) is conducted two to five times per election cycle by members of the School of Social Sciences at the University of Washington, and it appears to have been a “neutral” poll over the years. The poll was conducted over a period of two weeks, from October 14-26th. 724 people were interviewed, and there is a 3.6% margin of error. Because results were collected over a two-week period, we do not know if opinions have been shifting or if respondents have been holding firmly to their positions during the collection period. All that said, here’s what we do know: First, the Secretary of State projects 51% of Washington’s 3.5 million voters will be heard in this election, which is lower than the 85% last year, which is no surprise. And how that 51% views The Big Question, Yes or No: among all voters, it’s 56% yes, 39% no, among likely voters, 57% yes, 38% no, and among those who report they have already voted, it’s 55% yes, 45% no. These numbers are all outside the margin of error, suggesting we can have high confidence that “yes” is ahead. Roughly 5% of both likely voters and all voters report that they might change their minds, and that holds true for those who support and oppose the Referendum, suggesting the two groups might well cancel each other out. Democrats are more likely to support the Referendum than Republicans are likely to oppose it, and centrist voters are leaning slightly in favor (48%-46%, with 7% unsure.) Roughly 4.8 million of Washington’s nearly 6.7 million residents live in Western Washington, and more or less 4 ¼ million of those are residents of the Puget Sound region. Puget Sound voters are running 60-35% in favor, all voters in Western Washington are leaning 55%-40% for, and voters in Eastern Washington are leaning slightly against, 46%-49%. Independents and Republicans are the most likely to be undecided, at 7% and 6%, respectively. Females are more likely than males to support R-71 (62% yes, 33% no, versus 49% yes, 47% no). Moderates are leaning for it by 57%-36%, and Liberals like it better (87%-11%) than Conservatives dislike it (27%-68%). All age groups are leaning for R-71, with the ever-reliable voters over 65 supporting the measure by a 52%-42% margin. A Survey USA poll released October 6th showed the yes/no results were within the margin of error, with 13% undecided. The more recent Washington Poll shows undecideds under 3%, suggesting that the more people think about this, the better they like it. So that’s the story as of this morning: Referendum 71 looks like it might pass, but a lot of the votes will be in the mail, which means the results might be unclear at the end of this evening. There are very few left to make up their minds, one way or the other, although it is possible that some will be confused as to whether “yes” means “no”, and vice versa.
The fact that most of the results are well outside the margin of error suggests that the “yes” supporters should be feeling pretty good about their situation…and in about 12 hours, we’ll see if that’s going to be true—or not.
On Closing The Deal, Or, Referendum 71 Polling Analyzed | 7 comments (7 topical)
On Closing The Deal, Or, Referendum 71 Polling Analyzed | 7 comments (7 topical)
|
|
Recommended Diaries
Recent Diaries
Stupid ID Protection Dumbasses Busted
By m3047 (0 comments)
Hah! Olympia!
By m3047 (0 comments)
Microsoft Tax Amnesty
By m3047 (3 comments)
Murray and Cantwell for the Win?
By dlaw (1 comments)
Does Senator Cantwell Think We'll Forget?
By dlaw (28 comments)
Help our state representatives figure it out
By leduc (0 comments)
Murray, Cantwell, Public Option
By dlaw (6 comments)
FUSE: When is the First Time U Got My EM?
By m3047 (0 comments)
Group Health Seriuosly Flawed
By SME in Seattle (0 comments)
Can someone find me a progressive to take on Murray
By leduc (18 comments)
Farrakhan v. Gregoire: The Wrong Debate
By sarge (2 comments)
When will Washington go Single Payer?
By Pen (4 comments)
Why Democrats Must Join The "Tea Party"
By dlaw (2 comments)
Why do Republicans Oppose Fair Elections?
By Pen (0 comments) Related Links+ website+ my last story + 10% + ads + The Washington Poll + poll + 51% + poll [2] + fake consultant's Diary Washblog RSS FeedsPolitical ContactsLocal MediaAberdeen Daily World Chinook Observer Montesano Vidette Pacific County Press Willapa Harbor Herald KXRO 1320 AM Peninsula Daily News Bremerton Sun Bremerton Chronicle Gig Harbor Gateway Port Orchard Independent Port Townsend Leader North Kitsap Herald Squim Gazette Central Kitsap Reporter Business Examiner KONP 1450 AM Anacortes American Bainbridge Review Voice Of Bainbridge San Juan Journal The Islands' Sounder Whidbey NewsTimes South Whidbey Record Stanwood/Camano News Vashon Beachcomber Voice Of Vashon KLKI 1340 AM Bellingham Herald The Northern Light Everett Herald Skagit Valley Herald Lynden Tribune The Enterprise Snohomish County Tribune Snohomish County Business Journal The Monroe Monitor The Edmonds Beacon KGMI 790 AM KELA 1470 AM KRKO 1380 AM King County Journal Issaquah Press Mukilteo Beacon Voice of the Valley Federal Way Mirror Bothell/Kenmore Reporter Kirkland courier Mercer Island Reporter Woodinville Weekly Seattle PI Seattle Times KOMO TV 4 KIRO TV 7 KING 5 TV KTBW TV 22 KCTS 9 UW Daily The Stranger Seattle Weekly Capitol Hill Times Madison Park Times Seattle Journal of Commerce NW Asian Weekly West Seattle Herald North Seattle Herald-Outlook South Seattle Star Magnolia News Beacon Hill News KIRO 710 AM KOMO AM 1000 KEXP 90.3 FM KUOW 94.9 FM KVI 570 AM The Columbian Longview Daily News Nisqually Valley News Lewis County News The Reflector Eatonville Dispatch Tacoma News Tribune Tacoma Weekly Puyallup Herald Enumclaw Courier-Herald The Olympian KAOS 89.3 FM KCPQ 13 KOWA FM 106.5 UPN 11 Ellensburg Daily Record Levenworth Echo Cle Elum Tribune Snoqualmie Valley Record Methow Valley News Lake Chelan Mirror Omak chronicle The Newport Miner The Spokesman-Review KREM 2 TV Spokane KXLY News 4 Spokane KHQ 6 Spokane KSPS Spokane Statesman-Examiner Othello Outlook Cheney Free Press Camas PostRecord The South County sun White Salmon Enterprise Palouse Boomerang Columbia Basin Herald Grand Coulee Star Walla Walla Union-Bulletin Yakima Herald-Republic KIMA 29 Yakima KAPP TV 35 Yakima KYVE Yakima Wenatchee World Tri-City Herald TVEW TV 42 Tri-cities KTNW Richland KEPR 19 Pasco Daily Sun News Prosser Record-Bulletin KTCR 1340 AM KWSU Pullman Moscow-Pullman Daily News |