Washblog || Why Port Progressives Fisken & Tarleton Finished with a Flourish

Why Port Progressives Fisken & Tarleton Finished with a Flourish

By Sarajane46th
Wed Aug 29, 2007 at 09:48:45 AM PST
Section: Diary Topic: Ports

From Andrew's election analysis on Northwest Progressive Institute:
"Just when we thought Alec Fisken's rise in the primary election returns couldn't possibly get any higher, it did. After King County Elections tabulated just 3,834 mail ballots today [Tuesday Aug. 28th], Alec's percentage of the vote stood at an even 47% - yet a new threshold for the progressive, reform-minded commissioner."

And a comment there by RonK: "That's not just amazing. That's bizarre! By very rough B.O.T.E. estimate, Fisken polled something like 40% on early voters, and 57% on late ones."

Here are my thoughts on this amazingly strong finish: As PCO, I made the rounds of my precinct in NE Seattle, in the 46th, and carried both Alec's and Gael's literature. Because ballots are mailed 21 days before the election, I walk my precinct within a week after ballots are mailed. The "sample ballots" with the 46th LD Dems endorsements are very well received and even anticipated by our voters, especially in an "off" year when most of the races are low-profile and non-partisan (no "brand label").

I asked each voter if they were aware of the Port campaigns, and, if so, whom they were supporting. Only one of about 50 voters had studied the race at that time, and he only know what was in the voters' pamphlet. However, from the voter's pamphlet, he chose Alec Fisken and Gael Tarleton. I also gave each voter my own reasons for wanting progressives Gael and Alec on the Port Commission, and got several promises of support.

The reasons for our progressive candidates strengthing in the final weeks? Ironically, record-low 24% turnout was part of it. Only those who'd studied the non-partisan races were likely to vote. Other reasons: excellent candidates; strong campaigns that didn't let up; great netroots support; excellent voters' pamphlets messages; major endorsements; literature distribution by PCOs who walked their precincts; and personal appeals.

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Why Port Progressives Fisken & Tarleton Finished with a Flourish | 3 comments (3 topical)

Still a mystery

Early voters get the same voters pamphlets, and are more likely than poll voters to study them.

Turnout? Same factor for earlies as for lates.

Endorsements? The major papers endorsed Fisken AND Bryant, and did it early. Civic org endorsements wre split, and equivocal.

PCO's? The race is county-wide, and not THAT many households get personal contact. (District and precinct-level analysis might shed some light.)

Excellent candidates? Fisken was the same guy on the 21st that he was on the 1st.

Netroots? Not that much buzz, frankly.

Two plausible factors I can think of:

Fisken dropped a mail piece that hit after the earliest voters. Was it a "clincher"? Coulda fooled me, but deserves another look.
Lora Lake. Controversy over demolishing low-income apartments near the 3rd runway was running at a rolling boil through the voting period. August 10th, Fisken (along with the other endangered incumbent, Bob Edwards) flipped his vote to favor preservation. That could have been big - but it didn't give Edwards much lift, did it?

Things happen for reasons, though we can't always find out what they were. This one is still a mystery ... and a page-turner.

by RonK Seattle on Thu Aug 30, 2007 at 01:57:19 PM PST

* 1 none 0 *

Still a mytery

I tossed the puzzle around with many bright minds at the Labor Day labor picnic at Woodland Park -- including Fisken, other candidates, their managers, consultants, and bystanders.

No good theory yet. Some new stabs at it, eslily blunted by looking at similar (but less extreme) differetials with other candidates.

Big shifts all over the map; no consistent pattern.

by RonK Seattle on Tue Sep 04, 2007 at 08:33:54 AM PST

* 2 none 0 *

The missing 's' in 'mystery'? by RonK Seattle, 09/04/2007 08:34:54 AM PST (none / 0)

Why Port Progressives Fisken & Tarleton Finished with a Flourish | 3 comments (3 topical)

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