Washblog

New Poll Numbers from The Washington Poll on State Ballot Initiatives

University of Washington's Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race and Sexuality, also known as WISER, conducts nonpartisan political polls.  I learned that today from Rich Roesler's Eye on Olympia, the political blog of The Spokesman Review.

The Washington Poll has just issued the results of polls conducted between October 22 and 28, 2007 among 601 registered voters throughout the state.    Pacific Market Research, a Renton firm, did the telephone interviews.  Oddly, the results are in PowerPoint documents.  Also, I find it odd that Senate Joint Resolution 8212 -- on prison labor -- was not part of the poll.  Given the disproportionate incarceration rates of African Americans one might expect an organization that focuses on issues of race to be interested in polling on a prison labor issue.  Hmmm.  Links to those documents and summaries of what I see as the most telling results, appear below the fold.

The best news here is that "NO on R-67" looks like it's going down in flames. Ten million dollars has been poured into Washington State by the insurance industry -- mostly from out of state -- to trick Washingtonians into cheating themselves. Even if the insurance industry pours $10 million more into this campaign, it's not likely to make a difference now. This $10 million, which comes from money that people paid to insurance agencies, should have been spent for its intended purpose. This is strong evidence that criminal greed in the insurance industry is a major factor in trashing our healthcare system and overburdening business. More legislation -- that at least extends this new law to healthcare -- is needed to bring this industry into line.

These tables represent a small subset of the information available on the Washington Poll site. I've chosen to present a slice of the data for the three measures polled that I find most interesting. See The Washington Poll site for more questions on these three measures -- and for questions on 8206 and 4204.  In addition, the Washington Poll site has recent data on approval levels for Governor Gregoire, George Bush, the State Legislature, and Congress.  Polls from earlier in the year --and from last year -- are also worth looking at.

I-960
On statewide ballot initiative 960, which would require two-thirds legislative or two-thirds voter approval to increase state taxes, will you vote yes or no on 960? (Among all respondents to this poll: 41% "Yes" and 40% "No". Not good news for those of us strongly opposing 960.)

 YESNOUNDEC.
Democrat34%44%22%
Republican49%35%16%
Independent42%42%15%

 

Referendum 67
On statewide Referendum 67, which will make it unlawful for insurers to unreasonably deny certain coverage claims, will you vote to approve or reject? (Among all respondents to this poll: 48% "Yes" and 31% "No". Good news! R-67 looks like nearly a sure shot from that perspective. Ten million dollars has been poured into Washington State by the insurance industry -- mostly from out of state   
 YESNOUNDEC.
Democrat57%23%20%
Republican34%46%20%
Independent52%27%21%

 

Proposition #1
Proposition 1 is the regional roads and transit plan to improve local roads, highways, and the Sound transit rail, and will cost an estimated eighteen billion dollars in higher sales taxes and car-tab fees. Will you vote yes or no? (The result from all respondents to this poll is 43% "Yes" and 46% "No")

 YESNOUNDEC.
Democrat56%33%10%
Republican29%64%6%
Independent39%44%17%

 

Likely Voters
Among 401 registered voters who voted in Nov 2005 AND Nov 2006 elections
(i.e. "likely" voters in November 2007 election)

 YESNOUNDEC.
Prop-96042%41%17%
R-6746%31%24%
Prop 1: RTID49%38%13%
< United for Peace of Pierce County Posts Video of Saturday's Peace March | I-25: Elected Director of Elections? Yes! >
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The best news is that NO on 67 is going down in flames. Please correct.

If perception is reality, then the world must be flat and the sun must revolve around it.

by ivan on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:13:27 PM PST

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in the concluding table. 401 registered voters is such a small sample that the margin of error would probably be about 5%.

Ivan's right - Ref 67 is not going down in flames; it's the only clear winner (besides Simple Majority for school levies).

Sigh. Looks like the anti-transit/Sierra Club coalition is doing an effective PR job with RTID...

I-960 is the real nail-biter in this election.

by shoephone on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:22:02 PM PST

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of this pdf:

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/pdf/oct2007.pdf

under subject heading "Randomized Lists", dealing with nightmares and other fears.

I would think that should be part of a psychology survey, rather than an election survey..

by shoephone on Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 03:27:55 PM PST

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So, can we file a class-action suit against our insurers because they were wasting our premiums?

by changingamerica on Fri Nov 02, 2007 at 01:41:55 PM PST

* 9 none 0 *


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