Washblog || Amazing differences between 2004 and 2008

Amazing differences between 2004 and 2008

By eridani
Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:01:13 AM PST
Section: Diary Topic: Democrats

I ran some data from the 11th LD caucuses derived from VoteBuilder. There is a truly astonishing increase in the percentage of people who are classified as Unknown + No Data for party affiliation.

Clinton
Democrats 155 54%
Independents 7 2%
Republicans 7 2%
Unknown 119 41%
Totals 288 100%

Obama
Democrats 255 41%
Independents 16 3%
Republicans 19 3%
Unknown 330 53%
Totals 620 100%

They aren't too different in drawing Republicans or Independents by percentage. The Repub caucuses were on the same day as ours, though. The Unknown category refers to people that we have not canvassed and have insufficient information about to determine party leanings. The larger percent of unknows for Obama indicates that he is bringing more new people in, but the differences in the percent unknowns isn't really large.

This is, however, a really astonishing change from 2004. Compiling data from all the candidates gives the following results.

Party Voters Percent
Democrat 735 94%
Independent 6 1%
Republican 1 0%
Unknown 38 5%

Going from 5% unidentified voters to 40-50% is really astonishing. If we want to build the party, be nice to newbies.

Also, I did the following chart comparing Obama and Clinton in age of supporters.

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a115/vindamiatrix/Politics/Agerangeof11thLDdelegates.jpg

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Amazing differences between 2004 and 2008 | 4 comments (4 topical)

flawed logic

In the "2004" table, you're looking at the 2008 status of 2008 Democratic caucus participants who also caucused in 2004.

But prior caucus participation is an important component of the formula for determining party-identification status. Therefore, the probability that a 2004 caucus participant will display some degree of party identification in 2008 must be very high, by definition. That the proportion of "unknown" is as much as 5% indicates incomplete data entry.

Now, if you could somehow see the 2004 status of those two-time caucusers, you'd see a picture much more like the 2008 result.

You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen
Blogging at Peace Tree Farm

by N in Seattle on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 01:56:22 PM PST

* 1 none 0 *

No, the data are for 2004 candidates only by eridani, 03/19/2008 12:56:03 PM PST (none / 0)

N in Seattle is right

There are some other flaws in you analysis. Not all of the delegates from 2004 will still be in the file. Some will have died or moved-and the younger transitory voters are most likely to have moved, and are most likely to be upgraded.

BTW, I don't see any big harm here, but as a general policy, YOU SHOULD NOT POST VOTEBUILDER NUMBERS ON A PUBLIC BLOG.

by Kelly Wright on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 11:07:41 PM PST

* 2 none 0 *

True--the 2004 data leaves out people who moved by eridani, 03/19/2008 12:59:03 PM PST (none / 0)

Amazing differences between 2004 and 2008 | 4 comments (4 topical)

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