Washblog

What I've Been Talking About All This Time

Forget the hyperbole. For the most part, American politics is a sedate affair. Too strong a message is most often bad because you are not trying to extend and expand a change but trying to protect a margin or chip away at a particular interest group. Yet occasionally there is potential for real change. When that potential comes around, parties have to adopt a stronger message because they are in the process of changing the minds of a large segment of the population.

In the East I saw that the Philadelphia and New York suburbs were in the beginnings of a full revolt against the Republicans. Note the Washington Post's blog here. I also noticed the same dynamic in the Seattle suburbs, although it was disguised in 2004 by some spectacularly bad Democratic campaigning and the received wisdom about the suburbs that was badly behind the times.

Therefore, I reasoned that the thing to capitalize on was suburban rejection of movement conservatism. The most identifiable and vulnerable project of movement conservatism was the war in Iraq. If Democrats created a united message they - like the Republicans in '94 - could expect a large percentage of a large swath of America to reject the incumbent party.

[On a personal note, this would especially fun for me because, being left of Democrats, I like big moves to the Left. And I also knew it would be good for the country in the long run.]

So I became extremely anxious that the Democrats get and stay on message. They were going to win, it was just a question of how to persuade them to win more by increasing the intensity of the message. And I had reason to be anxious: Democratic leaders were counselling the opposite tactic - a move to the right.

Fortunately, the Republicans created such a bad situation for themselves that they forced everyone - including Democrat leaders - to reject Republican policy vocally, and the result is what we saw last night.

But there were some holdouts.

Maria Cantwell was one.

When the dust settles, the dollars are counted and the numbers tallied, there will be no question that Maria Cantwell - indeed the whole Democratic party of Washington state - could and should have united and campaigned harder and with one voice for newcomer Darcy Burner. Yes, we all could have given more time. And on a national level, the Democratic Party's leadership could and should have showed more unity. But there really isn't any question that, here in Washington state, the efforts of a Senator with millions of dollars and a very weak opponent could have made a quantum difference. She could have gotten many thousands more votes for Darcy Burner rather than the many hundreds more votes an incremental increase in volunteerism or bit more rhetorical support from D.C. might have garnered.

It was a misallocation of resources, pure and simple. Maria Cantwell's campaign , as run, simply represented too much money spent on too Reichert-like a message. I'm not saying that the whole Burner effort or any part of it couldn't have been improved. It could have been. But to give the Party the best chance in the 8th, the woman at the top of the Democrat ticket in the state of Washington - our junior Senator -  would have had to have been on board and on message.

But Senator Cantwell wasn't on board and on message - not when it came to that centerpiece issue of Iraq. And there is no way around it - that hurt us in the 8th. Cantwell time, press and dollars could have been converted into Burner votes had the campaigns been closer together. Burner had no choice. Hers was a race that had to be nationalized. Her candidacy had to be about a wedge between Seattle-suburb voters and the Republican party. Cantwell chose to distance herself from that message - the message we saw from the DCCC, the national message. That was a poor political choice.

Fortunately the national shift was bigger than we knew and at this writing Darcy Burner may be headed to Congress. But it need not have been such a close thing, had Cantwell leaned in and crowded the plate on Iraq. She owed it to her party. She should have been a leader and sacrificed a little for the good of the team. She had 15 points to work with.

Maybe next time.

Peace,

Dlaw

< Let's be more like Oregon and less like Ohio: Vote by Mail!! | It was a great day even though some did not gain 50%+1 >

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/comments/2006/9/20/191125/416/10#10

/comments/2006/9/12/17181/8892/8#8

(And the whole Vogon/Rawhide thing going back to the spring.)

by m3047 on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 10:00:42 AM PST

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Thanks. You three really saved our ass.

by Particle Man on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 10:16:46 AM PST

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I forgot SeaBos's courageous stand.

He found a way to say what had to be said and those of us who knew it had to be said had to fall in behind him.

But SeaBos deserves the credit for bringing the message that resources were being misallocated in the Cantwell race.

by dlaw on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 10:49:35 AM PST

* 6 5.00 2 *


THIS JUST IN! Research reveals ONE CAUSE of:

Ring around the collar
The heartbreak of psoriasis
Nagging backache
Itchy, scaly dandruff
Engine ping
Seasonal Affective Disorder
Dropped calls

It's MARIA CANTWELL, and her failure to move left!

Asked to justify his startling conclusions, Dr. David Bailey, MD, PhD, LLD, DJ, FOS, stated boldly:

"Because I say so."

If perception is reality, then the world must be flat and the sun must revolve around it.

by ivan on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 01:35:37 PM PST

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You don't think she should have helped out a little more?

There was no time for her to get on-message?

There was no time for her to change her freakin' schedule and campaign in the 8th?

Come on.

by dlaw on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 01:35:47 PM PST

* 12 5.00 1 *


I mean we are a tough crowd! The pollthingy here works well enough. I personally don't see/experience any technical impediments.

But I am alternately scared/disencouraged from polling simply because it is collective wisdom that polls are crap! We make fun of that here, with fun polls which make fun of polls (hey, some of us live in Ballard, which at one point in time must have been haunted by Lutherans).

I think that if you devised a suitable poll, you'd find that Washblog readers (posters in particular) were probably the most evil, ornery, despicable people that any hapless pollster could find themselves chained to by an arbitrary construction of atoms cajoled into concerted effort by modern technology.

by m3047 on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 11:14:57 PM PST

* 22 5.00 1 *



The thesis on this blog was that Maria Cantwell's seat was in danger.

That was nonsense.

Facts are facts.

She was NEVER behind and she led by double digits the whole way. All contentions that she was in trouble from McGavick were hysteria. Facts are facts.

When you spend a lot of resources on a race you win my 18%, that is a misallocation. It's just that simple.

This was a different kind of election from 2000 and people had better get used to this FAST. Conservatism is dying. We are in a different mode here. People like Rahm Emanuel got their predictions very wrong because they did not see the political dynamic correctly. Howard Dean did.

Be smart. Change.

We should be talking about the fact that the transition came before we are ready to say what Progressivism is. We're not prepared the way the Republicans were in '94. Yes, they were about rejection, but they were also building on a base of the development of Movement Conservatism.

We have to move slower, but we have to move. Compromise is over. The American people want to understand what is wrong with the Republicans THEY voted for. Why did movement conservatism not work? That's what we have to answer first.

Why didn't Iraq work?

Why can't the Republicans lower the deficit?

Why is the economy okay despite high debt?

Why is there such a disparity between rich and poor people?

These are hard, serious questions and people are open to a process of figuring them out. That openness is what we should be working on.

Campaigns like Clinton's and Cantwell's assume that people's minds are closed. Normally that's true. Normally, tactical, Clinton politics is what you have to do. But this is one of these rare times.

by dlaw on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 01:29:21 AM PST

* 27 5.00 2 *


Not wait......

Hong Tran for Senate!!!!!!!!!!!!

Uh oh.....

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

by Belltowner on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 01:27:10 PM PST

* 10 3.50 2 *


Last night at the Sheraton, I had my Howard Dean T-Shirt on so I did attract a few comments and several conversations ;)

As I told MANY Dems and 3 different press people, there were 3 reasons they Dems were doing well:

Frist - Iraq, Katrina, Deficit on and on and on,
Second - REAL moderate Dem Candidates Who FOUGHT,
Third - HOWARD's 50 state strategy,

AND ALMOST NOTHING from Hillary / Cantwell / Rahm crowd.

dlaw brings up some really good points about how the Dems "worked" during this election cycle in this state.  Not being on the inside, I can only reflect on the media I've seen and the results in the vote count, and

Things sure could have helped Darcy and Goldmark and Wright and and a lot more.

I recall quite vividly some of Pelosi's comments from the big screen, and,

I couldn't believe how complicated the sentences were and how big the words were.  I am glad that all the uber - educated poli-sci major types are being satiated with big complex thoughts, but

where is the nice simple stuff to use day to day? day to day when we are yakking with whoever whereever and it makes it easy to say

this is what they're gonna do,
this is what they are doing,
this is what they did.

Thanks to moveon, thanks to actblue, thanks to the blogs,

thanks to the zillions of volunteer foot soldier citizens who did what they could for whoever they could, regardless of how incompetent their generals and their captains.

rmm.  

 

http://www.liemail.com/BambooGrassroots.html

by rmdSeaBos on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 11:44:59 AM PST

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