2008: Which candidate turns Red states Blue?[ED: Front paged, NM. Check out Belltowner's Pike Place Politics ] The 2008 election season is already starting up. Would-be presidential candidates are dropping by every week it seems. Mark Warner (D-VA) raised some money, and jawboned with County Exec. Ron Sims. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) came to the aid of our own Sen. Cantwell. Sen. John Edwards came for PLAN, and rolled up his sleeves at a SEIU rally. Sen. Russ Feingold visited this weekend for a `buck up the troops' event in Ballard followed by an appearance at the 43rd's spring party. Even Sen. John Kerry came back not too long ago. Al Gore was here, but that was for the screening of his film, An Inconvenient Truth. Men (and woman) with an eye on '08 are already lining up resources and contacts for the campaign. Democrats of all stripes are already making their considerations public (at least I am, here at Washblog). How will you decide which candidate to support? For me, it's about geography.
Which candidate will win states John Kerry couldn't? Or, which candidate will turn `red' states `blue.' Electoral maps from '92 forward show the Democratic base in the South starting to atrophy. We used to compete, in the national arena, in states like Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee. In 1992, Bill Clinton won Louisiana, but lost Florida. While Democrats are opening up the Southwest (AZ and NM), the South is being traded away.
There are those who are working on this problem. Namely, DNC Howard Dean, who has put seed money into state parties who haven't seen much help from Washington for some time. But while party organizations make change, candidates have to work harder to appeal to voters and their values. Some do this better than others. In 2004, I was stoked that Sen. Kerry was pounding "Benedict Arnold CEOs who ship jobs overseas." I don't think most people know who Benedict Arnold was, but even regular folks have a big distrust of corporations. In Iowa gymnasiums and New Hampshire coffee shops, John Kerry beat up on the big boys. It worked, and Kerry was no longer the glass jaw folks tagged him for. That was until he was the nominee. After Kerry secured the nomination, the "Benedict Arnold" line was never heard again. The big dollar donors got cold feet, and Kerry got the message. Gone was the sharp-edged populism that had done him well in the primary. While candidates often "triangulate" (that is, moving away from the party base and towards the general population), Kerry's abandonment of core party values was detrimental. His running mate, John Edwards, was put in a box, with no more "Two Americas." (The kind of populist message which had worked well to bring back people who used to vote Democratic) Even Howard Dean, of the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party," would have tact to the middle. Dean, after all, had been the recipient of an "A" rating from the National Rifle Association, and had reigned in spending in Vermont, drawing the ire of Green Mountain state liberals. Bill Clinton's post-convention campaign didn't dump the populist rhetoric. Certainly, we can agree that Kerry didn't have to either. I believe that Democrats have to run a candidate that can win states like Massachusetts and also win Missouri. We need the kind of candidate that doesn't irritate the base too much, but that can also appeal to non-ideological, regular folks. My friend David Goldstein (of Horsesass.org) has a great mind for politics, but he has declared that "we don't need another Southerner." I find this perplexing, considering the Democrats who have won have hailed from Dixie (Gore, sort of, in '00, Clinton, Carter, LBJ). In fact, you have to go back to 1960 to find a non-Southerner. I don't think we need a Southerner so much as we need someone who can talk about values better than the regular Democrat. Which candidate turns North Carolina blue? Georgia? What about Missouri, a state which is already sick to death with its Governor (Matt Blunt) and its junior Senator (Jim Talent)? Which prospective candidate brings Tennessee back into the fold? Maybe Louisiana is gone for a generation due to Hurricane Katrina, but Senator Landrieu has a bull's eye on her in 2008. A presidential candidate with Southern appeal could make the difference. I may not have gotten all the facts right, or you may not agree with some of the finer points, but I hope the folks here at Washblog can see this diary for its larger purpose. Democrats need to appeal to folks who don't vote for Democrats anymore. We can do something about this. We don't need more DLC triangulation. We need to talk about our values, and less about programs. Regular folks believe "healthcare for everyone" is a damn fine idea, but they don't quite understand what "single-payer healthcare" is all about. I once read that while only 2% of Americans will ever pay an inheritance tax, 17% think they will. Why Democrats don't rename the "death tax" the "Paris Hilton Tax" is beyond me. Then there's that old story about Sen. John Breaux's encounter with an old woman in an airport:
Senator, don't you dare let the government get its hands on my Medicare! Funny as that story seems, it explains how people feel about the government and its role in their lives. Folks, I can tell you that John Kerry might have spent the next twenty minutes trying to educate that woman, and maybe she would have understood her error. Or maybe she wouldn't. But she was speaking from her values.
That's the important part.
2008: Which candidate turns Red states Blue? | 12 comments (12 topical)
2008: Which candidate turns Red states Blue? | 12 comments (12 topical)
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