Washblog

2008: Which candidate turns Red states Blue?

[ED: Front paged, NM. Check out Belltowner's Pike Place Politics ]

The 2008 election season is already starting up.

Would-be presidential candidates are dropping by every week it seems.  Mark Warner (D-VA) raised some money, and jawboned with County Exec. Ron Sims.  Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) came to the aid of our own Sen. Cantwell.  Sen. John Edwards came for PLAN, and rolled up his sleeves at a SEIU rally.  Sen. Russ Feingold visited this weekend for a `buck up the troops' event in Ballard followed by an appearance at the 43rd's spring party.  Even Sen. John Kerry came back not too long ago.  Al Gore was here, but that was for the screening of his film, An Inconvenient Truth.

Men (and woman) with an eye on '08 are already lining up resources and contacts for the campaign.  

Democrats of all stripes are already making their considerations public (at least I am, here at Washblog).  How will you decide which candidate to support?  For me, it's about geography.

Which candidate will win states John Kerry couldn't?  Or, which candidate will turn `red' states `blue.'  Electoral maps from '92 forward show the Democratic base in the South starting to atrophy.  We used to compete, in the national arena, in states like Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee.  In 1992, Bill Clinton won Louisiana, but lost Florida.  While Democrats are opening up the Southwest (AZ and NM), the South is being traded away.

There are those who are working on this problem.  Namely, DNC Howard Dean, who has put seed money into state parties who haven't seen much help from Washington for some time.  But while party organizations make change, candidates have to work harder to appeal to voters and their values.  Some do this better than others.

In 2004, I was stoked that Sen. Kerry was pounding "Benedict Arnold CEOs who ship jobs overseas."  I don't think most people know who Benedict Arnold was, but even regular folks have a big distrust of corporations.  In Iowa gymnasiums and New Hampshire coffee shops, John Kerry beat up on the big boys.  It worked, and Kerry was no longer the glass jaw folks tagged him for.  That was until he was the nominee.

After Kerry secured the nomination, the "Benedict Arnold" line was never heard again.  The big dollar donors got cold feet, and Kerry got the message.  Gone was the sharp-edged populism that had done him well in the primary.  While candidates often "triangulate" (that is, moving away from the party base and towards the general population), Kerry's abandonment of core party values was detrimental.  His running mate, John Edwards, was put in a box, with no more "Two Americas." (The kind of populist message which had worked well to bring back people who used to vote Democratic)  Even Howard Dean, of the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party," would have tact to the middle.  Dean, after all, had been the recipient of an "A" rating from the National Rifle Association, and had reigned in spending in Vermont, drawing the ire of Green Mountain state liberals.  Bill Clinton's post-convention campaign didn't dump the populist rhetoric.  Certainly, we can agree that Kerry didn't have to either.

I believe that Democrats have to run a candidate that can win states like Massachusetts and also win Missouri.  We need the kind of candidate that doesn't irritate the base too much, but that can also appeal to non-ideological, regular folks.  My friend David Goldstein (of Horsesass.org) has a great mind for politics, but he has declared that "we don't need another Southerner."  I find this perplexing, considering the Democrats who have won have hailed from Dixie (Gore, sort of, in '00, Clinton, Carter, LBJ).  In fact, you have to go back to 1960 to find a non-Southerner.

I don't think we need a Southerner so much as we need someone who can talk about values better than the regular Democrat.  Which candidate turns North Carolina blue?  Georgia?  What about Missouri, a state which is already sick to death with its Governor (Matt Blunt) and its junior Senator (Jim Talent)?  Which prospective candidate brings Tennessee back into the fold?  Maybe Louisiana is gone for a generation due to Hurricane Katrina, but Senator Landrieu has a bull's eye on her in 2008.  A presidential candidate with Southern appeal could make the difference.

I may not have gotten all the facts right, or you may not agree with some of the finer points, but I hope the folks here at Washblog can see this diary for its larger purpose.  Democrats need to appeal to folks who don't vote for Democrats anymore.

We can do something about this. We don't need more DLC triangulation.  We need to talk about our values, and less about programs.  Regular folks believe "healthcare for everyone" is a damn fine idea, but they don't quite understand what "single-payer healthcare" is all about.  I once read that while only 2% of Americans will ever pay an inheritance tax, 17% think they will.  Why Democrats don't rename the "death tax" the "Paris Hilton Tax" is beyond me.  Then there's that old story about Sen. John Breaux's encounter with an old woman in an airport:

Senator, don't you dare let the government get its hands on my Medicare!
Without missing a beat, Breaux replies:
Don't worry madam, I won't.

Funny as that story seems, it explains how people feel about the government and its role in their lives.  Folks, I can tell you that John Kerry might have spent the next twenty minutes trying to educate that woman, and maybe she would have understood her error.  Or maybe she wouldn't.  But she was speaking from her values.  

That's the important part.  

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by Belltowner on Sun May 21, 2006 at 04:16:58 AM PST

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Mark Warner
Hillary Clinton
Wes Clark
Evan Bayh

Maybe Brian Schweitzer (but inexperienced in too many departments) and Bill Richardson (baggage).

Not sure about John Edwards. (Would he be received as John Edwards, Populist? Or John Edwards, Trial Lawyer?)

Not sure about Al Gore. Would he campaign as Al Gore, the outspoken public intellectual? Or Al Gore, the overcalculating candidate?

In sum, most of our prospects can escape the 17-state straightjacket.

by RonK Seattle on Sun May 21, 2006 at 08:34:29 AM PST

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  • my concerns by rmdSeaBos, 05/21/2006 09:27:45 AM PST (5.00 / 1)
  • Ron: by Belltowner, 05/21/2006 04:28:36 PM PST (none / 0)
    • Winning states by gibney, 05/21/2006 05:33:56 PM PST (none / 0)
      • I believe... by Belltowner, 05/21/2006 11:20:26 PM PST (none / 0)
I completely agree with Belltowner here.  And here's my take on it.

We have got to get to the heart of things, to operate according to what matters to people regardless of ideology.  

Arguing over belief will always divide people because you're not going to convice people on social and mystical matters through argument or law.  Matters of the heart are affected through relationship and example -- not conflict.  

People change their minds on matters of belief through a process that is very different from what happens in the political arena.  And such cultural change is less likely to happen in an environment, such as we have now, that is characterized by economic injustice.  

On abortion, for example.  This is an ethical matter. Progressives need to defend these rights, yes.  But, on a practical level, putting this at the core of a political platform gives a signal that Democrats agree that abortion is a legal matter.  It's not!  It's a matter of personal belief.  And that is the very reason why it should not be legislated.  

Matters of economic justice and physical security, however, are amenable to policy.  The economy and our environmental and national security -- these things are exactly what government should be all about.

We've got to unite across religious and ideological lines on a platform of overthrowing  the apparatus of the corporate state (cheating on elections, propaganda, corporate lawlessness, etc.) that wrecks our economy and environment -- that is making our physical world unlivable.

When we are being cheated -- taxed unfairly, our labor being abused, our jobs sent overseas, profits from our land and our common resources being bled out into the global economy, etc. -- we  tend to be a bit ornery.  And we tend to be much more easily manipulated.  Anger and need/want cloud judgment.  

Economic fairness, energy and food security, safe livable communities, good jobs, fair elections, accountable government, good healthcare -- this is what we need to focus on.  

The fight on social issues -- gay rights, abortion -- is also critical and needs to happen on the ground.  But when it comes to matters of physical survival, liberals, progressives, and Democrats should be more willing to forgive potential allies on matters of relgion and sex and guns, etc.    

The focus we've allowed to happen on conflict over matters of belief hurts us and enriches the smash-and-grab global robber-barons.  If we can have a little more unity across ideological and regional divides on the problems like climate change and restoring profitability to sustainable uses of the land, problems that actually are amenable to technical and policy fixes, then the belief things will sort themselves out much more easily.

by noemie maxwell on Sun May 21, 2006 at 11:36:04 AM PST

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according to Russ yesterday in Ballard, he won WI in '04 with 300,000 votes while Kerry carried the state with 10,000.  

Lesson #1?  Leaders who are Leaders can kick ass.

see 300,000 V. 10,000.

Lesson #2. About Values -

1. IMHO RaygunI & II, BushI & BushII all proved that you can run a jackass, if you have great message and great handlers, and win.

Great handlers and great message can sell Strom Thurmond in Seattle and Teddy Kennedy in Arkansaw.

2. Dukakis, Gore, Kerry spent all their time tripping over themselves to NOT scare the middle, terrified of memes propagated by the MSM and the thugs so effectively that there is a huge subset of Dems whose thinking strategically and tactically is practically outta the thug playbook -

How to Get the Dems To Lose - Think Too Much & Be Afraid.

  1. Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Mondale - these were all good guys whose teams really didn't know how the thugs had changed the rules, and they sure as hell didn't capitalize on changes in campaigning.  their losses have typically been blamed on hte lefties scaring the middle, BUT, the current thug apparatus that has been kicking Dem asses for 20 years learned at the feet of the thugs of '68 to '84.  

  2. "kerry Lost On Values", or some variant of that meme, started on Election Day 2004. IMHO, this meme is just another tactic of the 6 steps ahead of us thug tactics to keep Dems fighting the last election on flawed premises.

Finally - a LOT is on the Dem side.

For as broken and unreliable gov't programs are for the bottom 90% who know that the programs are unreliable and broken, without thug lies,

there is a lot to build on.

WHY Dems don't have kick ass message and communications, given that every 2 years there are hundreds of millions of dollars spent and millions of volunteer hours used up, is inexcusable.

IF they can lie effectively about ... lies, why the hell can we talk effectively about the truth?

HOPEFULLY, this '06 congressional cycle will bring to the front the kind of campaign, media and communications people who can get the job done, cuz,

if in 2007 we are hiring ANY of the lame losing sons of bitches who "helped" Gore or Kerry or even Clinton, we are screwed.

rmm.

http://www.liemail.com/BambooGrassroots.html

by rmdSeaBos on Sun May 21, 2006 at 08:13:14 AM PST

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 Economic Costs of War.

This is exactly what I'm talking about!  She spells it out beautifully.  

This government is putting half our resources into the military and pitifully little into physical security.

We've got to fund the military too, of course. I don't deny that.  We've got to have protection against attacks by foreign countries.

The problem is, it's been hijacked for greed, by war profiteers, in order to control global oil resources, etc.  And the military that is supposed to protect us has, through its hypertrophy, created world havoc that puts us in terrible danger.  And how has this wool been pulled over the eyes of Americans so that they support it?  Ideology!  

As General Smedly Butler told us War is a Racket .  And it's a racket sold by manipulating belief, through the manipulation of ideology.

We need a culture change that allows much more forgiveness on -- and less emphasis on -- belief.  We've gotta toughen up on this one, get policy and governance focused on matters of policy and governance, not on ideology.

by noemie maxwell on Sun May 21, 2006 at 11:52:28 AM PST

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In terms of a candidate, Bill Richardson has the best of everything. His backage (which basically adds up to 30 or so hellish months at the Energy Dept) is easily forgotten about when you consider everything else.

He is a former UN Secretary and a very popular governor in a Western purple state. As an overseas trouble shooter as a congressman, he regularly interviened in hostage situations, including freeing two New Mexicans from Saddams Hussein in 1995.

Also, we should be looking more towards what Dan Kemmis talks about, that Democrats should more centrally put concepts like civic engagment and problem solving at the center of our thoughts. It is too long to talk about here, but here is a taste:

All across the West, people are working with one another to make their communities more livable, more attractive, more prosperous. They get together in land trusts or to support bond issues to preserve the open space so fundamental to our Western identity. They work together on trail systems, streamside restoration projects, performing arts centers, grass banks, music festivals, farmers' markets, skateboard parks, health clinics for the uninsured, downtown revitalization, and on and on and on.

Yet the Democratic Party has become so accustomed to thinking in terms of its standard constituency politics (minorities, labor, environmentalists, women, etc.) that this amazing Democratic bonanza almost never shows up on the Party's radar screen. Democrats need to be there, seeking out these engaged citizens, asking them how the Democratic Party can help them do their democratic work.



________________
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by emmettoconnell on Sun May 21, 2006 at 04:48:13 PM PST

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