Washblog

Wall Street Wall of Denial Starts Crumbling

If you haven't already, please read this piece by Michael Lewis. It's the best I've read and it gives a very personal depth to the Credit Crisis.

Of his protagonist - a person who saw through the great wall of scam - Lewis writes:

The funny thing, looking back on it, is how long it took for even someone who predicted the disaster to grasp its root causes. They were learning about this on the fly, shorting the bonds and then trying to figure out what they had done. [He] knew subprime lenders could be scumbags. What he underestimated was the total unabashed complicity of the upper class of American capitalism.

Two words:"de rigeur". And be sure to look for the fun little mention of Washington Mutual and such phrases as: "The Lomas Financial Corp. is a perfectly hedged financial institution: It loses money in every conceivable interest-rate environment." As for the economic news....I really wish....I could go on....typing dots forever.....but....two more words: "not good". We are now, officially, in for it. To make it short and sour:...

..."credit cards" and "commercial real estate" or, as they will soon be known: "Ka" and "Boom".

Of course Secretary Paulson has already told us that the market for securitized credit card debt is completely frozen. This is a very bad thing as it represents about 40% of credit card debt. If because of this banks have to reign in consumer even harder and faster than they already have, consumption will really fall off a cliff.

And, (as I wrote previously, you should start expecting waves of "ands") when unemployment starts to go past about 9%, the models credit card and other consumer credit companies use just blow up. This is part of the reason most economists' unemployment estimates stop at 8.5%. In their world, going that next half a percentage point makes you an alarmist. Meanwhile, unemployment looks to me like it may hit 8% by the time Obama is inaugurated (although it will probably be revised up to that number later). I don't see how we can possibly avoid 10% unemployment or higher.

But I've been right far too much lately. I don't like it.

Commercial real estate looks bad because of ever-worsening fundamentals but mainly because the mortgage-backed securities that back up that market are starting not to trade normally or be priced normally. Panic is setting in. Again, this is to be expected. Market after market has fallen domino-style. They will continue to fall until the waves of panic spreading from the center of the banking system abate somewhat.

Again, you don't read about these markets much, but the "fixed-income" or bond world is very huge and complex. It's much bigger than the stock market and has many sub-markets. Starting with the leveraged loan market (there may have been one before) they have been dropping at an average of almost one a month since last summer. Certainly that rate has to slow - although not for a nice reason.

The bonds behind credit cards and commercial real estate are the next two in line. Judging from the way these things have gone and the ineptitude of the present Treasury, I'd say they are as good as gone.

The next Administration will figure out how to make a stand they don't have to retreat from.

This bunch is hopeless.

Meanwhile, as bad as you think it can get, expect it to get worse. Sorry to say that, but I think it's true. I wish it wasn't.
 

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would you please predict something that WON'T happen?

We need the underlying foundation of our financial system to get a shoring up, both in terms of trust and actually financial strength.  We need to bring the financing of our state and local governments back into the hands of the people who live in those states instead of depending on the Gods of Wall Street to sign off on multi-billion dollar deals.

Here are some ideas:

  1. A bone from Congress, saying that state and municipal bonds may be sold in denominations of $100.  Bring them into reach of the people who want the secure savings opportunities presented by local governments backed by a strong Federal government.

  2. A way for people to buy those bonds that is regional, not global through the brokerage firms.  Something like this website for Washington and other states.

  3. Open up these opportunities at local credit unions and local banks, similar to the CD's being offered in support of the Veterans Family Foundation.

  4. This is part of the core operations of government that we don't learn in school anymore.  We need Randy Dorn to get the message that we need civics education in schools, not just about voting but how our government operates.  Tax systems, credit systems, personal finance and how important it is NOT to go into personal debt except for big lifetime purchases like homes or cars, etc.

Did I miss anything?

by chadlupkes on Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 11:11:07 AM PST

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via Online Journal

Economists and policy-makers are not thinking. This enormous financing need comes not to a well-managed economy that can take the additional debt in its stride. Instead, it comes to an economy so badly managed that there are no reserves.

Massive US trade deficits have been financed by giving up US assets to foreigners, who now own the income flows as well. Budget deficits from six years of pointless wars and from unsustainable levels of military spending have helped to flood the world with dollars and to drive down the dollar's exchange value. Consumers themselves are drowning in debt and can provide no lift to the economy. Millions of the best jobs have been moved offshore, and research, design, and innovation have followed them. Considering America's dependency on imports, part of any stimulus package that reaches the consumer will bleed off to foreign countries.

Generally, when countries acquire more debt than they can service, they inflate away the debt. If foreign creditors do not save the Obama administration, the Treasury will print bonds and give them to the Federal Reserve, which will issue money.

The inflation will be severe, particularly as Americans will not be able to pay for the imports of manufactured goods from abroad on which they have become dependent. The exchange value of the dollar will decline with the domestic inflation. Once inflation is off and running, the printing press dollars will only have goods made in America to chase after. The real crisis has not yet begun.

Paulson should rethink the automakers' and FDIC's proposals. A bank produces nothing but paper. Automakers produce real things that can be sold. Occupied homes are worth more than empty ones.

Paulson's inability to see this is the logical outcome of Wall Street thinking that highly values deals made over pieces of paper at the expense of the real economy.

Arthur
What they inwardly imagine is the only thing they'll accept.

by Arthur Ruger on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 08:51:05 AM PST

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I was listening to Marketplace last night:
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/

They had a tape that had been made about the consequences of Greenspan holding down the Fed interest rates....

Also, there is a columnist in the WashingtonPost named Steven Pearlstein who I am reading regularly.

Crisis and Opportunity.  Maybe things can be put on a different footing.  Does not help retirees I know who are trying to find a job.

By the way -- the King County Fair was funded.  But, I still think IT needs otbe put on a different and more collaborative with the community footing...

by ktkeller on Sat Nov 22, 2008 at 02:08:20 PM PST

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