Wall Street Wall of Denial Starts Crumbling
If you haven't already, please read this piece by Michael Lewis. It's the best I've read and it gives a very personal depth to the Credit Crisis.
Of his protagonist - a person who saw through the great wall of scam - Lewis writes: The funny thing, looking back on it, is how long it took for even someone who predicted the disaster to grasp its root causes. They were learning about this on the fly, shorting the bonds and then trying to figure out what they had done. [He] knew subprime lenders could be scumbags. What he underestimated was the total unabashed complicity of the upper class of American capitalism. Two words:"de rigeur". And be sure to look for the fun little mention of Washington Mutual and such phrases as: "The Lomas Financial Corp. is a perfectly hedged financial institution: It loses money in every conceivable interest-rate environment." As for the economic news....I really wish....I could go on....typing dots forever.....but....two more words: "not good". We are now, officially, in for it. To make it short and sour:...
..."credit cards" and "commercial real estate" or, as they will soon be known: "Ka" and "Boom".
Of course Secretary Paulson has already told us that the market for securitized credit card debt is completely frozen. This is a very bad thing as it represents about 40% of credit card debt. If because of this banks have to reign in consumer even harder and faster than they already have, consumption will really fall off a cliff. And, (as I wrote previously, you should start expecting waves of "ands") when unemployment starts to go past about 9%, the models credit card and other consumer credit companies use just blow up. This is part of the reason most economists' unemployment estimates stop at 8.5%. In their world, going that next half a percentage point makes you an alarmist. Meanwhile, unemployment looks to me like it may hit 8% by the time Obama is inaugurated (although it will probably be revised up to that number later). I don't see how we can possibly avoid 10% unemployment or higher. But I've been right far too much lately. I don't like it. Commercial real estate looks bad because of ever-worsening fundamentals but mainly because the mortgage-backed securities that back up that market are starting not to trade normally or be priced normally. Panic is setting in. Again, this is to be expected. Market after market has fallen domino-style. They will continue to fall until the waves of panic spreading from the center of the banking system abate somewhat. Again, you don't read about these markets much, but the "fixed-income" or bond world is very huge and complex. It's much bigger than the stock market and has many sub-markets. Starting with the leveraged loan market (there may have been one before) they have been dropping at an average of almost one a month since last summer. Certainly that rate has to slow - although not for a nice reason. The bonds behind credit cards and commercial real estate are the next two in line. Judging from the way these things have gone and the ineptitude of the present Treasury, I'd say they are as good as gone. The next Administration will figure out how to make a stand they don't have to retreat from. This bunch is hopeless.
Meanwhile, as bad as you think it can get, expect it to get worse. Sorry to say that, but I think it's true. I wish it wasn't.
Wall Street Wall of Denial Starts Crumbling | 3 comments (3 topical)
Wall Street Wall of Denial Starts Crumbling | 3 comments (3 topical)
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