Washblog

 This may actually be part of a possibility suggested by  Brzezinski or just the new Prime Minister speaking to Iraqis, neighbors and others.
 Even with "bad cops" Blair and Bush, who tried to make nice recently, the possibility of redeployment and even drawdown of forces is increasingly likely over the summer. They my do it even in the face of increased Iraq insurgency and Iraq forces being defeated in the provinces.

 The large chunk of the people who for whatever reasoned or unreasoning thought approved of the invasion of Iraq will begin to feel better, even many of those who now describe Iraq as a mess. They may still think that George and Dick and Rummy could have handled it better, but they'll start seeing improvement.

 The administration will continue to play the Iran threat, but with reduced belligerence and more "acceptance" of diplomacy. This will also pull many of the "security first" crowd back into favoring Republicans. Just look at the numbers who think NSA data mining and domestic surveillance is worth the loss of liberty for the "perceived" increase in security.

 Then we get to "all politics are local", and "it's your congress critter that sucks, not mine" and the money and power that comes with incumbency and the nationwide redistricting in favor of the current incumbent. Many perceived vulnerable R seats in the House and Senate might solidify some (and it probably only takes 5 percent in many such districts).

 Meanwhile, we (Democrats) have been quite giddy about the possibility of regaining one or both houses. Almost to the point that if power doesn't switch, George , Dennis, Frist and the rest will take a narrow victory, call it a mandate to stay the course, and proceed. It's not like they haven't been doing that for the last six years already

 Which brings me back to my first line, I don't think we'll drop the bunkerbuster nukes on Iran until after the election.